Archives January 2015

The Bancorp: Bad Moon Rising

  • The Bancorp is a Philadelphia area bank whose stock has fallen 50% in 2014 due accounting and regulatory surprises.
  • On top of that, it announced it was discontinuing its commercial lending operations and set aside a $1.2 Billion portfolio for sale with an overall 6.5% mark-to-market discount.
  • An 8-K filed on the last business day of 2014 revealed a partial sale with a mark-to-market discount of 20.2%.
  • Another 8-K filed 3 days ago revealed that the EVP of commercial loans resigned effectively immediately.
  • Until there are assurances from management as to the quality of the remaining portfolio for sale, we rate this stock a sell.

The Bancorp (NASDAQ:TBBK) is a Philadelphia area bank founded in 2000 by the pioneering banker and lawyer Betsy Z. Cohen. A few bullet points from her resume:

  • Second female law professor on the East Coast after Ruth Bader Ginsberg
  • Founded Jefferson Bank in 1974; Sold it in 1999 for $370M
  • Instrumental in financing Philly’s Walnut Street downtown revival
  • Board Member – Aetna US Healthcare, Philadelphia Museum of Art, Bryn Mawr

Since inception, the bank’s Chairman has been her son, Daniel G. Cohen. A few bullet points from his resume:

  • CEO of three publicly-held companies whose market values crashed due to CDO investments
  • CEO, IFMI, 2010-12 when market value crashed 91%
  • CEO, Alesco Financial Trust 2007-10, when market value crashed 87%
  • CEO, RAIT Financial Trust, 2006-9 when market value crashed 98%

2014 was a bad year for The Bancorp as the bank was rocked by a series of surprise accounting and regulatory disclosures resulting in a 50% drop in its stock price.

TBBK Chart

TBBK data by YCharts

First there was an April 18, 2014 8-K disclosure in conjunction with the release of its 1Q14 results that “newly identified adverse classified loans”, caused a one-time addition to its loan loss reserve of $11.8 Million. The next trading day the stock dropped 14.9% from $18.60 to $15.84.

Then there was a June 10, 2014 8-K disclosure that the FDIC found that bank was in violation of the Bank Secrecy Act — namely that reloadable prepaid cards issued by The Bancorp were being used for extensive money laundering. The next trading day the stock dropped 30.3% from $16.36 to $11.40.

On December 1, 2014, there was 8-K disclosure that CEO Betsy Z. Cohen, 72, would be retiring at the end of the year.

Her son, Daniel G. Cohen, 42, remains Chairman of the Board. Four other Board members are Board members of other companies that Daniel G. Cohen has at one time controlled.

We see a “bad moon rising” for The Bancorp in 2015. We see “trouble on the way”.

In its 3Q14 10-Q, the bank announced that was discontinuing it commercial lending operations. Based on an independent third party review, it marked down the portfolio by an additional $38.9M to a fair market carrying value of $1.2 Billion:

” In addition to $44 million in the allowance for loan losses which was net against those loans, an additional $38.9 million expense resulted from the valuation to estimated sales price, which was also net against those loans. “

Here is a 3Q14 conference call exchange, as transcribed by SA, confirming the view of $82.9M as the difference between the outstanding principal and the fair market carrying value of the portfolio at that time.

Paul Frenkiel– Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Yes, those actually are separate, so maybe the easiest, I think the way you are trying to look at it was that at the end of the second quarter we had a reserve of about $46 million. We had some activity during the quarter, so we ended up with the reserve about $44 million and $38 million was basically in addition to that.

Matthew Kelley– Sterne Agee

Got you. So we can really think about it as an $82 million write-down or 7% or 8% of the unpaid principal balance. Is that the right way to think about it?

Paul Frenkiel – Chief Financial Officer

By 38 in addition to the 44 that had accumulated over a period of many years.”

On the next to the last business day of the year, December 30, 2014, the bank issued an 8-K stating that it had sold a portion of its $1.2 Billion commercial loan portfolio:

“The sold loan portfolio had an outstanding principal balance of approximately $267.6 million, which had been adjusted on the books of the Bank to estimated fair market value in the third quarter of 2014 upon the classification of the Bank’s related commercial lending operation as a discontinued operation and the transfer of the related portfolio to “held for sale” status. As a result of the estimated fair market value adjustment, the carrying value of the portfolio, as of September 30, 2014, was $213.5 million.”

Several things about this first sale caught our eye. The first thing was the mark-to-market discount associated with this relatively small piece of the portfolio:

(267.6 – 213.5) / 267.6 = 54.1 / 267.6 = 20.2%

This was way out of line with the overall average discount of 6.5% established just two months earlier.

Second, the sale was not for cash nor to an established third-party. It was for note receivables issued by a newly created LLC with the bank itself as 49% minority partner.

We ask ourselves, “How toxic can the full portfolio really be if this is what the bank had to do to sell just a portion of it?”

Maybe, they planned on an asymmetric sequence of sales, with the very toxic piece cut out first and sold to a related party at a steep discount.

Then they would sell the remaining clean piece with a mark-to-market discount of only 3% to an established third party willing to pay cash for a clean bundle.

But if this were so, why did The Bancorp not include an explicit statement in the late December 8-K of the planned asymmetric sale sequence?

Another 8-K has been just filed by The Bancorp on January 9, 2015 reporting that Arthur Birenbaum, EVP, commercial loans has resigned, effective January 8, 2015.

Investors need to get straight answers to the following questions now or during the bank’s 4Q14 earning conference call:

  • What is the overall mark-to-market discount on the remaining $900M commercial loan portfolio?
  • Can the bank give assurances that the remaining portfolio is fairly valued in light of the 20% mark-to-market discount associated with the piece just sold?

Below is a spreadsheet summarizing our view of the accounting of the two transactions to set aside the commercial loan portfolio in 3Q14 and then to sell the first piece on December 30, 2014.

It also includes a “what if analysis?” as to future mark-downs of the remaining portfolio for sale

Bancorp Sale of Loan Portfolio

Additional disclosure: Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.


Zynga: A Sleeping Dog in 4Q14

  • We forecast that Zynga’s 4Q14 bookings will be at the low end of guidance of around $183 million, based on App Annie revenue ranking trends.
  • QoQ revenue growth in casino games has been wiped out by QoQ declines from its tentpole game FarmVille 2: Country Escape.
  • While new releases Looney Tunes Dash! and New Words with Friends sported impressive download rankings, the monetization to date for both has lagged, possibly by design.
  • We rate Zynga a hold, optimistic that this sleeping dog will awake eventually with vigor that lasts long enough to reward patient investors.

Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) is a San Francisco-based mobile game company named in honor of Zinga, the deceased dog of its founder and former CEO Mark Pincus. It’s logo is a red dog. Its headquarters is known as “The Dog House,” which it owns and has been its most impressive acquisition to date.

This article is an update to our June 2014 article for SA, Zynga is a Dog Without a Top 10 Mobile Hit.

During its 1Q14 conference call, CEO Don Mattrick narrowed the FY14 booking guidance to between $770M-$810M. We said that was attainable only if Zynga had a Top 10 mobile hit.

Well, that has not happened. YTD bookings by quarter have been $163M, $174M and $175M for a total $512M.

During its 3Q14 conference call, Mattrick narrowed guidance for 4Q14 bookings to between $183 and $213 million.

Based on App Annie revenue ranking charts, we forecast that Zynga’s 4Q booking will be at the low end of guidance of $183M and full-year booking will be around $695M, a full 12% below FY mid-range guidance of $790M.

Our advice is to let this sleeping dog lie.

If you own this stock, hold. If you don’t own stock, stay away until this dog wakes up as evidenced by a new release with a Top 25 revenue rank.

Don’t be fooled into buying based on recently-released Looney Tunes Dash! sporting a Top 10 download rank. Monetization matters and the rabbit doesn’t have it. The bunny isn’t money.

Mattrick gave 4Q14 bookings guidance of between $183 and $213 million based on the following expectations:

  • continued growth of casino slot games
  • special events driving growth of FarmVille 2: Country Escape
  • launch of New Words With Friends
  • launch of Looney Tunes Dash!

Below is a table of App Annie revenue rankings for games on iOS Apple Store USA, by far Zynga’s biggest market, by quarter beginning dates.

When you combine all casino slot games, we would say that slots revenue was up in 4Q, but that it was wiped out by the downtrend in Zygna’s tentpole game FarmVille 2: Country Escape.

Zynga games by revenue rank

(click to enlarge)

However, the game has yet to crack the Top 50 in revenue rank.

(click to enlarge)

Below is the download rank chart for New Words with Friends. Notice the impressive early Top 5 download ranking during the period before December 2, 2014 when the game was totally free without ads or freemium elements.

(click to enlarge)

Here is the revenue rank chart which began with a December 2, 2014 update that added freemium elements. Monetization has been poor to say the least.

(click to enlarge)

In sum, we rate Zynga a hold, optimistic that this sleeping dog will awake eventually with vigor that lasts long enough to reward patient investors.

There are a few things that might awake this dog: (1) a release from recent acquisition NaturalMotion that is a hit; (2) better monetization from casino slot games, possibly with redeemable perks at Vegas gaming establishments; (3) reconsideration by CEO of real money gaming; (4) purchase of company that makes Trivia Crack.


Machine Zone (MZ): A $4 Billion Unicorn That Walks the Walk

Published: January 11, 2015)

Machine Zone [MZ] is a Palo Alto-based, mobile gaming startup with a massively popular Top 2 iOS USA app store hit called “Game of War: Fire Age.” [GoW].

MZ describes Game of War: Fire Age as:

.. a real-time mobile massively multi-player online game and parallel chat-speak translation application that translates over 40 languages for its players in real-time, connecting game players around the globe at the same time in a single virtual universe.

This is how the New York Times described the real-time chat translator embedded in GoW:

The game’s most impressive feature is an instantaneous translation of text-based online chat. If someone writes “MDR” in French (for “mort de rire,” or “dying of laughter”), an English-speaking player sees it as “LOL”

GoW is MZ’s only published game to date. We wrote first about MZ in a Seeking Alpha article eight months ago, estimating then that its annualized revenue run rate [ARR] was at $831 Million with a 2.5x valuation of $2.04 Billion. We were the first to establish MZ as a $1+ Billion startup, aka a Unicorn.

Based on Seeking Alpha supplied page view metrics, our first article on MZ for Seeking Alpha has become slowly over time our top viewed article among the 21 we have written for SA in the past year.

This article is a follow-up. We update our estimates of MZ’s annualized revenue run rate and valuation. We also cite a recent interview given by the CEO where he mentions interest in licensing MZ’s chat translation engine.

We have identified two well known, highly successful companies where chat is core — Facebook’s WhatsApp and Slack, the fastest growing SaaS startup of all time. Both companies would benefit greatly by adding real-time translation to their chat core.

Eight months ago, we derived a $2.04 Billion dollar valuation for MZ. Shortly thereafter, the Wall Street Journal reported that MZ was in talks with VCs for funding that would place a $3 Billion valuation on the company. Nothing materialized.

Based on increased ARR for GoW plus interest in licensing its real-time chat translation engine, we now place a $4 Billion valuation on the company.

Yet, MZ’s name still cannot be found on any Unicorn list such as the Fortune magazine list. This is due to the perverse qualifier that the valuation must be come from a financial press article or blog post referencing a VC funding round and a whispered valuation.

No matter if that valuation came from funding with “liquidation preferences”. No matter if a startup is so profitable, as is the case with MZ, that no additional funding is required after a Series B round done years ago.

Besides the perversity of MZ being excluded from Unicorn lists, the exclusion is also ironic. Unlike other Unicorns, the public has access to mobile game company “cash register” data supplied for free by analytics companies like App Annie or Think Gaming who record “freemium” game in-app purchases bought through iOS Apple Store or Google Play. Can you imagine discussion if we had access to “cash register” trend data of Uber, AirBnB and Drop Box?

The availability to the public of game revenue rankings has not been recognized for its place in the democratization of financial investing data. This trend was first recognized by famed fund manager Peter Lynch some 40 years ago.

The trend line goes from Lynch’s observation that anyone could see the financial implications of the L’eggs hosiery racks in grocery stores, to weekend box office receipts published by Variety, to near real time stock prices made available for free by Yahoo and Google Finance.

The line continues with real time audio of quarterly conference calls to transcriptions of these calls on SA (thank you SA!) to App Annie daily revenue ranking charts of mobile games by country.

App Annie even has revenue ranking data of games in “geo-lock” test releases in locations like Canada and New Zealand.

Freely available pre-release data of a game’s revenue potential is a step up from other well know pre-release indicators like out of town reviews of a Broadway-bound musical or reports of the reception of a test item on McDonald’s menus in Australia.

In addition to MZ’s absence from Unicorn lists, there are only a handful of published interviews with CEO Gabriel Leydon. You cannot find an interview where the CEO mentions revenue, valuation or IPO.

MZ is a rare Unicorn that walks the walk, not talks the talk.

This is in contrast to Kabam, the other mobile game startup identified as a Unicorn (no longer) who has talked the talk, and not walked the walk lately.

Based on our close observation of Kabam’s press over the past two years, we offer this Letterman-like list of the top 5 signs a Unicorn is talking the talk too much:

5.  Company still has a booth at SXSW five years after first showing.

4. SVPs give more interviews than CEO.

3. CEO quantifies to press revenue and money in bank.

2. CEO’s company pays for naming right to football field of alma mater.

1. CEO now spikes hair with mousse for video interviews.

Now back to how we derive a current valuation for MZ.

The table below presents our derivation of a current ARR of $1.1 Billion for GoW, up from our $831 Million estimate made eight months ago.

Estimate of ARR --Game of War

From this you have to subtract the loss of people disgusted by the Upton ads as evidenced by massive amounts of derisive tweeting going on in the last 4 months. The ads themselves, not the ad campaign, has been the only questionable move by MZ since inception. The source of MZ’s revenue growth in the past year has been the combination of organic growth in spending by dedicated players plus new downloads resulting from a $40+ Million ad campaign featuring the busty Kate Upton.

Indeed, we believe that MZ and its flood of Upton ads embedded in other free mobile games was the cause of an unprecedented, simultaneous #1 ranking of the free (ad supported) and paid versions of the same game, Trivia Crack. This was due to millions of freeloading players willingly forking over $2.99 just to avoid the Upton ads.

Below is a table of calculated price-sales ratios, specifically market valuation / annualized run rates, for the three pure play mobile game companies with substantial sales in the USA: Glu Mobile (NYSEMKT:GLU), King Digital (NYSE:KING), and Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA). The range is from a low of 1.83 for GLU to a high of 3.19 for ZNGA.

Price Sales Ratio of Mobile Game Companies

It should be noted that both KING and ZNGA sported 6+ price-sales ratios at the time of their IPOs.

We think that the midpoint of the figures above — 2.5x current ARR — is the appropriate figure to use in valuing MZ. This would place its current valuation at $1.1 Billion * 2.5 = $2.75 Billion.

But MZ has value beyond the ARR of a single game. MZ is not a one hit wonder.

First, MZ is amazingly “lean” in terms of its operations as measured by ARR / employee. This translates into profitability, something rare among Unicorns.

Below is a table that compares MZ’s head count with two big mobile game companies based in San Francisco — the troubled dog of a company, Zynga, and the stumbling startup Kabam.

Headcount Comparison of Mobile Game Companies

Both Zynga and Kabam had a string of failed game releases in 2014. Unless the fortunes of these companies change in 2015, there could 1,000+ unemployed mobile game people walking the streets of San Francisco this fall.

While we are on the subject of headcount, the San Jose Business Journal reported that MZ has leased an estimated 140,000 square foot space on Page Mill Road in Palo Alto that used to be Facebook’s old headquarters.

Furthermore, there is an adjacent 140,000 square foot space now leased short term to Nest and Google that may be available to MZ later.

At 250 square feet / employee, this new MZ facility could accommodate an additional 560 employees now with another 560 employees being housed in the adjacent space once Google completes its futuristic new HQ in the Shoreline area of Mountain View.

The other metric of MZ that is amazing is its ratio of current valuation to total VC funding. CrunchBase reports a total of $13.3 Million in VC funding with the last round being a Series B done a full three years ago.VentureBeat reported a total of $16 Million so there could be some $3 Million in angel money not captured by CrunchBase.

At a $2.5 Billion valuation, the VC return would be 156x. At a $4 Billion valuation, the VC return would be 250x. MZ’s return compares favorably to the 100x return that VC’s looks for every couple of years to make up for all of the other failed investments in their portfolios.

We now turn to the case that MZ has value beyond the ARR generated by a single published game.

CEO Gabriel Leydon recently gave a revealing interview to Robert Kolker of Bloomberg Business Week. For us, this was the first interview of any substance that Leydon has given since GoW was released for iOS two years ago.

Leydon may have been asked about revenue, scale, venture capital, and IPO, but evidently he declined to comment. He also did not talk much about the specifics of GoW itself.

Basically, Leydon relishes talking about two things: (1) how hardcore GoW’s fans are; (2) how hardcore MZ’s engineering is.

A Leydon supplied metric on the hardcore GoW fan:

The average player…plays for two hours per day, in 12-minute sessions, 10 a day.

A Leydon supplied metric on MZ’s engineering prowess:

…Game of War accommodates about 3 million users in simultaneous play, with what the company clocked as a 0.2-second response time…. This is the largest real-time concurrent interactive application ever built. There’s nothing even close to it.

For us, the most interesting section of the interview was Leydon’s belief that the MZ’s chat translation technology would be of value to the likes of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). (specifically,we presume Facebook’s $19 Billion acquisition WhatsApp)

From the interview,

It’s closer to a social network than it is a video game,” Leydon says. “Facebook has pokes and messages and things like that. In Game of War, you have attacks and friends and chats.” Leydon argues that Game of War’s social interplay is far more complex; among other things, Facebook interactions across language borders are limited.

He goes on

Leydon, meanwhile, intends to focus on what his new networking technology can accomplish outside the gaming world. He says dozens of companies have asked to license Machine Zone’s translation engine. Its applications, he says, span beyond gaming and into finance, logistics, social networking, and data analysis.

A more intriguing partner for MZ than WhatsApp would be Slack, the fast-growing collaboration and chat startup.

MZ’s history is a inversion of Slack’s. MZ completes what Slack starts. You could argue that MZ is a doppelgänger of Slack.

Slack started out as Tiny Speck, a startup attempting to build a massive multi-player game. The game was never completed, but a side-project piece of software developed for collaboration morphed into the fastest growing SaaS in history.

MZ produced the hit game that Slack could not complete. As a side-project, MZ built a chat translation engine that fills in critical gaps in Slack’s wild success.

Slack has already invaded software R&D and content creation departments, both requiring close digital collaboration. Slack is now moving horizontally throughout enterprises where these departments are core.

By adding a real time chat translation engine to its offering, Slack could make in roads into globally distributed enterprises that service other globally distributed enterprises.

For example, this might include global insurance companies like AXA and Zurich Insurance that handle insurance needs globally of a company like Exxon Mobil. It might include global banks like Citibank and Deutsche Bank that handle the banking globally for a company like GE or Siemens.

MZ’s chat translation engine could be a global enterprise door-opener for Slack.


Kabam’s IPO Plans Are Kaput

Summary

  • Kabam is a mobile game startup with IPO aspirations and a reportedly $1 billion-plus valuation.
  • In early December, the CEO delayed IPO plans, blaming generally unfavorable conditions for a mobile game company IPO.
  • We show that the real reason for the delay was the disastrous performance of two of three new releases based on hit movie IP.
  • Kabam’s failures raise questions as to the sustainability of its headcount, its ability to produce hits based on movie IP and whether any mobile game company should do an IPO.

We are just a couple days into the New Year and already we have our first scratch – Kabam – from lists of technology companies most likely to do a 2015 IPO.

Kabam is a San Francisco-based mobile gaming company that had a track record of licensing movie IP (intellectual property) and producing top 25 revenue-ranking mobile games. But two new, highly-anticipated games based on The Hunger Games and The Lord of the Rings movie IP have had disastrous releases as evidenced by sub-200 App Annie revenue rankings.

As a result, Kabam’s plans for an IPO are kaput for now.

Kabam CEO Kevin Chou confirmed this day in a December 10, 2014 interview with the NYT. But, he blamed the delay on a generally poor environment for mobile game company IPOs created by the Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) and King (NYSE:KING) post-IPO debacles.

In this article, we present App Annie revenue ranking charts of recent releases from Kabam showing terrible gamer response to two of its three most recent releases. In our opinion, this is the real reason for Kabam’s IPO postponement.

We wish to state at the outset that our definition of “plans to do an IPO” aredirect quotes from CEO Chou stating Kabam has plans to do an IPO. This is in contrast to a strict definition — filing an S-1, which Kabam has never done, as has been point out to us by the company.

We feel that of SA followers, and the investing world in general, are comfortable with the first definition and not the second. There are plenty of articles on SA talking about companies with “plans for an IPO” where a S-1 has never been filed. Uber and Airbnb are the most prominent.

If you are uncomfortable with our definition, please read no further.

So first, we want to present URLs where there is a direct quote from CEO Chou of IPO plans.

We start with a Bloomberg video interview way back in October 15 2013. Pay attention to segment 2:11 – 2:45

Interviewer: Are you thinking about an IPO”

Kevin Chou: “We are.”

Next a Wall Street Journal interview on February 17, 2014

“WSJ: You have said previously that you are considering an initial public offering. Any updates?

Chou: We had another very serious discussion about an IPO in our board meeting in January. Our revenue is growing rapidly and we have been profitable since 2012. We have over $70 million of cash in our bank account. We are at the scale, where we can actively consider an IPO. But we also want to do it when the time is right, and we don’t have a definitive timeframe yet.”

Finally, a Newslook video interview given around the time of the Alibaba investment in August 2014. Pay attention to segment 3:30-3:53

Chou: ” You know it could be as early as 2015″

In early 2014 interviews, CEO Chou was justified in saying that the an plans for a Kabam IPO would be unwise due to Zynga and King’s performance.

But even then, part of the blame was attributable to a 2014 revenue fade of its most successful game The Hobbit: Kingdom of Middle-earth, based on an IP license from Warner Bros. (a division of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX)).

Below is an App Annie revenue ranking chart of The Hobbit game, showing the game’s Top 10 revenue ranking in 2013 and the fade throughout 2014 to a Top 30 position today.

(click to enlarge)

The relation between revenue dollars and revenue rank is a severe power function. We have estimated that a #10 ranking game is associated with an annualized revenue run rate of around $250M worldwide where as #25 rank is associated with an annualized run rate of around $90M worldwide.

The power function ratchets up at #5. We estimate that the top 5 revenue ranking games worldwide today have an annualized run rate of between $800M and $1,500M – Clash of Clans (Supercell), Candy Crush Saga, Puzzles and Dragons (GungHo Online), Game of War-Fire Age (Machine Zone), andMonster Strike (Mixi).

In mid-2014, Kabam announced a series of IP licensing deals with Warner Bros., Lions Gate (NYSE:LGF) and Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) Marvel Division.

The company reportedly built up its headcount to 850 employees worldwide with 400 in San Francisco, 350 developers in its Beijing studio headed by co-founder Mike Li, and 85 developers in its Vancouver studio.

It accepted a $120M strategic investment from Alibaba that reportedly valued the company at more than $1B. This was on top of $125M in venture capital money raised previously from the likes of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Ventures, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Capital, Warner Bros., MGM and a number of other venture capital companies.

The company even purchased for $18M, spread out over 15 years, for the rights to place “KABAM” on the football field of The University of California at Berkeley, the CEO’s alma mater. (A startup kiss of death?).

In May 2014, Kabam announced a deal with Lions Gate to make a game based on The Hunger Games movie franchise starring Jennifer Lawrence.

This game would be developed by its 300-person Beijing studio, headed by co-founder Michael Li. It was this studio that developed Kingdom of Camelot, Kabam’s first big hit, released in March 2012.

The Hunger Games game was released on November 5, 2014 and the results have been disastrous despite the fact that the movie has been a hit.

(click to enlarge)

In June 2014, Kabam announced a licensing deal with Warner Bros. to make another game based on The Lord of the Rings IP.

This game was released on October 15, 2014 and again the results have been disastrous despite the fact that movie has been a huge hit:

(click to enlarge)

Finally, In July 2014, Kabam announced that its Vancouver studio was at work on a game based on licensed IP from Disney’s Marvel Entertainment Division. On December 10, 2014, the Marvel-based game was released.

Only the Marvel game has performed decently with a current App Annie revenue rank of #33:

(click to enlarge)

Kabam still might recover in 2015 with scheduled releases of another Marvel-based game and a game based on Mad Max IP licensed from Warner Bros.

But, Kabam’s recent failures raise several questions for us pertaining to Kabam specifically and to the mobile game industry generally:

  1. Can Kabam afford to maintain its 850 headcount, especially the 300 headcount at its Beijing studio responsible for the poorly-received The Hunger Games game?
  2. Are the recent the poor results the specific fault of Kabam or the fact that basing games on hit movie IP is no longer a valid strategy?
  3. Given the dual difficulty of producing and sustaining a Top 10 revenue-ranking mobile game, might there be a better alternative for financing and providing investor liquidity than IPOs?